Is the Real Estate Market Shifting Again?
by Bherin Brown
If you’ve been paying attention to the real estate market lately, you’ve likely felt it—something is changing again.
Not dramatically. Not in a way that makes headlines every day. But quietly, steadily, the market is recalibrating. And what I’m seeing right now is a growing gap between perception and reality. Many people are still waiting on the sidelines, unsure of what comes next, while the market itself is already beginning to move forward.
To really understand where we’re going, we need to look at what’s happening both on the mainland and here in Hawaii—because they are not moving in the same way.
Across the continental U.S., the housing market is beginning to show signs of renewed activity after a slower, more hesitant period.
Mortgage rates have settled into the mid-to-high six percent range, and that stability is bringing buyers back into the market. Inventory is gradually improving as more sellers decide to list, and while price growth has slowed, it has not reversed. Demand is still there—it’s simply more
measured.
Recent data released in March 2026 from the National Association of Realtors shows pending home sales increasing month-over-month, while Redfin reports new listings rising compared to early 2025 levels. The market is no longer frozen—it’s finding its footing.
Hawaii Continues to Play by Its Own Rules... But With One Key Shift
Hawaii is still fundamentally different—but this is where things are starting to evolve.
For the past few years, one of the biggest drivers of pricing in Hawaii was extreme inventory shortage. In many cases, there simply weren’t enough homes available to meet demand.
That’s beginning to change.
According to March 2026 data from the Hawaii Association of Realtors and Hawaii Information Service, active inventory on the Big Island has increased roughly 20%–30% compared to the same time in 2025, depending on property type and region.
At the same time:
● New listings are coming on at a steadier pace
● Days on market have lengthened slightly
● Buyers have more choices than they’ve had in years
This doesn’t mean the market is soft—it means the market is balancing.
And that shift, while subtle, is incredibly important.
Why Pricing Matters More Than It Has in Years
Over the past few years, pricing strategy was more forgiving.
Low inventory meant that even if a property was slightly overpriced, the lack of options often brought buyers to the table anyway. Sellers could “test the market” and still see strong results.
That is no longer the case.
With more inventory entering the market in 2026, buyers are:
● Comparing more properties
● Taking more time
● Becoming more selective
And when buyers have options, they become more price-sensitive.
We’re already seeing this play out across parts of the Big Island, where properties that are priced correctly are still moving, while those that are not are sitting longer, requiring price adjustments, or missing their initial window of momentum.
In today’s market, pricing is no longer just a number—it’s a strategy.
It’s important to understand that demand hasn’t disappeared.
Buyers are still coming from California, Washington, and Arizona. Many are still high-income earners, cash buyers, or second-home purchasers looking for lifestyle and long-term value.
But they’re no longer competing blindly.
They’re analyzing. Comparing. Negotiating.
And that’s exactly what you would expect in a market where inventory is improving.
In areas like Mauna Lani, Waikoloa Beach Resort, Puako, and Kailua-Kona, desirability continues to support pricing—but even in these markets, presentation and pricing precision are making a noticeable difference in outcomes.
While inventory has improved, we’re still dealing with a broader supply constraint.
Many homeowners remain locked into historically low interest rates, which continues to limit how much inventory can truly enter the market. At the same time, there is still a significant amount of pent-up demand from buyers who paused their plans over the past two years.
This creates a unique dynamic.
We have more inventory than we’ve had recently—but not enough to fully satisfy demand.
And that balance can shift quickly.
What the Rest of 2026 Is Likely to Bring
If mortgage rates begin to ease later this year, even slightly, we could see a renewed surge in buyer activity. More demand entering a still-constrained market would likely push prices upward again—especially in lifestyle-driven markets like Hawaii.
At the same time, inventory may continue to improve gradually, but it’s unlikely to return to pre-2020 levels anytime soon.
What we’re experiencing right now is a transition phase—a moment where the market has loosened just enough to create opportunity, but not enough to weaken values.
The market isn’t crashing.
And it’s not the hyper-competitive environment we saw a few years ago either.
It’s evolving.
And in this kind of market, success comes down to understanding the nuance—especially when it comes to pricing, timing, and positioning.
Because while more inventory creates opportunity, it also creates competition.
Ready to Make a Smart Move? Let’s Talk Strategy.
If you’re even thinking about buying or selling in Hawaii this year, the smartest next step isn’t guessing—it’s getting clarity.
Right now, pricing, timing, and strategy matter more than they have in years.
That’s why I offer a private, strategy-focused consultation where we map out exactly what makes the most sense for your situation—whether that means acting now, waiting, or positioning yourself ahead of the next shift in the market.
If you’re considering selling, I’ll show you exactly where your property sits within today’s competitive landscape—and how to price it to attract serious buyers, not just attention.
If you’re buying, I’ll help you identify where the real opportunities are right now—and how to move strategically before competition increases again.
No pressure. No obligation. Just a clear, honest conversation so you can make a confident decision.
If you are not sure which direction to go, feel free to reach out to me and we can discuss your real estate strategy at 808-818-8127 or livealoha@kw.com. Hope you’re Living Aloha Everyday and we’ll talk soon.
